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Thursday 26th April 2007update
Thursday 26th April 2007
What a great opportunity to book profits on the shorts, and go long ? I like to look and add trendlines on different timescales to get a bigger picture. From these, it not only looks like a healthy pullback, and an opportunity to go long, since on a daily timescale it appears to be accelerating on its ascentwith a stop around 1.358 level. But again lets watch the price action.
Wednesday 25nd April 2007 - EUR IFO index 108.6 (107.7 expected)
The European IFO business climate index comes in at 108.6 above market expectations of 107.8, and helped the EUR make a fresh 2 year highs against the dollar, close to its all time high of 1.3666 against the dollar. The daily chart shows we are kissing the top of the daily trendline which is formed from the highs from last year in May, June and December. Which is a potentially reasonable reason to short.
This is confirmed when we see the bullish ascending wedge fail to break out on the 5 min chart.
Short EUR/USD here, and looking for a small pull back to 1.3633 before the US durable goods numbers come out in an hour. If the number comes out strong or at expectations of 2.6% look for a further pullback to the 1.3600 around which there is some support and below that 1.355. However, the weak existing home sales reported yesterday suggests if would be good to book any profits before the new home sales come out at 10:00 am EST.